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Okazaki laboratory reviewing the world trends commentary collection
February 19, 2019
"Tragedy" of the trump regime and the Taliban's transaction
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In August 2017, President Trumpe addressed himself and launched the Afghanistan strategy. Its main content was to increase the US military, to tighten Pakistan, which provides sanctuary for the Taleban, to try to overthrow the Taliban. However, the visible achievement did not rise, and the cards abruptly ordered the withdrawal of half of the 14,000 US military persons in December last year. For the cards it may have come to the limit of patience. In order to set a path for this withdrawal, Salmei Harirzad (Former Afghanistan, Iraq, UN ambassador) is in a hurry to negotiate with the Taliban.
grebeshkovmaxim / FabrikaCr / Bumblee_Dee
Perhaps the priority issue imposed on Harzarzad is to arrange the appearance that somehow withdraws a part of the US military. Although he is a competent diplomat, he seems to be a person who pledges allegiance to the cards. In April 2016, it was Harirzado who served as a host when Trump talked about the only foreign policy on election during Center for the National Interest. He also wrote a commentary on the New York Times that praises the above speech of the cards on Afghanistan strategy.
It is said that the "framework" agreed in direct negotiations with the Taliban in Qatar in January, but the content seems to be about "the element of assumed agreement", not the Taliban agreeing to it. It is a difficult question how to combine these measures with the withdrawal schedule of the US military as they agree with the measures that the Taliban should take in the future. Although a certain link with the path to peace is necessary, the start of withdrawal will devastate the Afghan government and confuse the situation no matter how devised. The Taliban may respond to any request from the US to withdraw US forces. I will also make an accurate calculation that the US military will never come back even if I later break the promise. If the US military starts withdrawing, there will be pressure of the United States and the troops deployed by other countries under the leadership of NATO (NATO accession / non-member countries dispatching troops with stronger than 8000 people) are floating There is no mistake. The smaller the existence of the US military, the more the safety of themselves will be compromised.
The purpose of the war in Afghanistan for the United States was to take measures to prevent Afghanistan from becoming a sanctuary for international terrorist organizations. Currently, branches of IS stand in the eastern mountainous areas. In a situation where it is impossible to break down the state of war stalemate, although it is unavoidable, in return for the Taliban guaranteeing that Afghanistan is not the root of international terrorist organizations such as Al Qaeda and IS as a terrorist organization by the United States Because it is said to withdraw US troops, it is strange to say bizarre. However, there is no clue to arrange the appearance for it only with it.
According to the editorial on January 28 of the Washington Post newsletter 'The Trump administration' s tentative deal with the Taliban could return Afghanistan to chaos', due to the US military's rapid withdrawal from Afghanistan, the US has so far sacrificed He said that the accomplishments must not be abolished. In response, the New York Times posted a long editorial titled 'End the War in Afghanistan' on February 3, claiming that the withdrawal of US and NATO troops should begin in the year . The editorial is the time when the initial purpose of judging Osama bin Laden has been reached, it is time to face the cruel truth that the goal of making an autonomous Afghan government and protecting the public can not be achieved It has said. Apparently the Trump regime is moving in that direction. In case
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2017年8月、トランプ大統領は自ら演説してアフガニスタン戦略を打ち出した。その主たる内容は米軍を増派し、タリバンに聖域を提供しているパキスタンを締め上げ、タリバンを打倒しようとするものであった。しかし、目に見える成果は上がらず、トランプは昨年12月に唐突に米軍1万4000人の半分の撤退を命じた。トランプにとっては我慢の限界に来たのであろう。この撤退の道筋をつけるためにザルメイ・ハリルザド（元アフガニスタン、イラク、国連大使）がタリバンとの交渉を急いでいる。
grebeshkovmaxim/FabrikaCr/Bumblee_Dee
恐らく、ハリルザドに課せられた優先課題は、何とかして米軍の一部撤退を可能とする体裁を整えることにある。彼は有能な外交官ではあるが、トランプに忠誠を誓っている人物のように思われる。2016年4月、トランプがCenter for the National Interest で選挙戦中唯一の外交政策に関する演説を行った際に司会を務めたのがハリルザドである。彼は、アフガニスタン戦略に関するトランプの上記の演説をベタ褒めする論評をニューヨーク・タイムズ紙に書いたこともある。
1月にカタールにおけるタリバンとの直接交渉で「枠組み」が合意したとされるが、その内容は「想定される合意の要素」という程度のことらしく、タリバンがこれに同意したという訳ではない。今後、タリバンが取るべき諸措置に同意するとして、それらの措置を米軍の撤退のスケジュールとどのように組み合わせるかは難問である。和平への道筋との確かなリンクが必要ではあるが、どのように工夫しても撤退の開始はアフガン政府を危険に晒し情勢を混乱させるであろう。タリバンは米軍を撤退させるためなら米国の要求に何でも応じるかも知れない。後で約束を破っても米軍が戻って来ることはないだろうという正確な計算もするであろう。米軍が撤退を始めれば米国の圧力があってNATO主導の下で他国が展開している部隊（米国以外にNATOの加盟・非加盟国が8000人強の部隊を派遣している）が浮足立つことは間違いない。米軍の存在が小さくなれば彼等自体の安全がそれだけ危うくなる。
米国にとってのアフガンにおける戦争目的は、アフガンが国際テロ組織の聖域にならないよう措置することにあった。現在、ISの支部が東部山岳地帯に立て籠もっている。戦争の膠着状態を打破出来ない状況で、止むを得ないこととは言え、アフガニスタンがアルカイダやISなど国際テロ組織の根城にならないことを米国がテロ組織と認定するタリバンが保証することの見返りに米軍を撤退させるというのだから、奇怪と言えば奇怪である。しかし、それしか撤退のための体裁を整える手掛かりがない。
ワシントン・ポスト紙の1月28日付け社説‘The Trump administration’s tentative deal with the Taliban could return Afghanistan to chaos’は、米軍のアフガニスタンからの性急な撤退によって、これまでに米国が多大の犠牲を払って成し遂げた成果を無にしてはならない、と述べている。これに対し、ニューヨーク・タイムズ紙は、2月3日付で‘End the War in Afghanistan’と題する長文の社説を掲載し、米国とNATOの部隊の撤退を今年中に始めるべきことを主張している。同社説は、オサマ・ビン＝ラディンを裁くという初期の目的は達したが、自立出来るアフガン政府を作り国民を保護するという目的は達成出来ないかも知れないという残酷な真実を直視すべき時であると述べている。どうやらトランプ政権はその方向に動いている。
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